Lockinge Stakes Tips: Rosallion To Begin With A Bang At Four

Always a thrilling spectacle, the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury is the highlighht of this sunny Saturday and sees the return of some real star milers. Billy Grimshaw has a strong opinion on the most likely winner and makes the case here...

It often comes to pass that in time, the 2000 Guineas winner works out as not the best miler of his generation and I believe that happened in 2024. Notable Speech was a deserving winner on the day at Newmarket just over a year ago and was the best horse on the day, but the Guineas can sometimes be the last two year old race and I think that happened last season as what we saw next from ROSALLION in comparison was a level above to me.

Richard Hannon probably had no idea how to feel in the aftermath of the 2000 Guineas in 2024, with a 2-3 being a great result by any metric yet the trainer undoubtedly a tad disappointed not to have won the Classic with Rosallion given how highly he rated the horse and how well he had run. His confusion will have been short lived, however, as his horse quickly made amends by winning the Irish equivalent of the race a few weeks later. They were of course different races on different days, but to me that performance was more taking the Notable Speech's Newmarket success and as such when the two clashed again at Royal Ascot, I was decidedly on the side of Hannon's colt.

This was a good day as Rosallion made the scoreline 1-1 between the rivals, in the end having more to worry about with Henry Longfellow attempting to steal the race from the front under a canny Ryan Moore ride while Notable Speech sat at the rear and in the end found little for pressure under William Buick. Only Rosallion made any inroads into Henry Longfellow's lead, eventually running him down as the race entered its final strides for another Group 1 success. There will be some who put a line through Notable Speech's run that day as too bad to be true, but i am of the opinion Rosallion had just improved past him and I saw nothing later in the season to change my opinon.

On pedigree both should improve at four and it is brilliant to see these Classic winning colts go round again rather than be shipped off to stud, as flat decriers often use the stars' lack of longevity as a stick with which to beat the code. There are question marks about Rosallion having such a long break, and he didn't win first time out last season obviously in the 2000 Guineas, but Notable Speech has also been off since November and although there are some who know more about American racing than I do, the fact he couldn't win the turf as favourite at Del Mar in the Breeders' Cup indicates to me he is perhaps not an elite Guineas winner, whereas I think Rosallion can be a top tier miler and maybe even beyond this campaign.

The Lockinge has in many seasons been a two horse battle but this race is by no means all about the 2024 Guineas 1-2, as Ryan Moore is booked to ride the race fit and thriving Dancing Gemini who the rest of the field will be wise not to get loose off the front end. There is simply no better judge of pace in the world, perhaps in history, than Moore and with his horse having fitness on his side and Rosallion showing last year he took a while to go through the gears when rusty off a break, I will be irritated to say the least if Sean Levey is not at the very least sitting third or fourth and keeping the likely pace setter in his crosshairs. Dancing Gemini is actually shorter in the market than Notable Speech at the time of writing, which surprises me.

Fallen Angel is another in the race who likes to lead and she could scupper Dancing Gemini's plan of a wire to wire success, She definitely has the stamina to contend but I think will get done for a finishing kick in a field this hot, while Tamfana falls into the same category. Although he was stuffed out of sight last time out behind Dancing Gemini at Sandown, I wouldn't totally rule out Lead Artist as he has pace to burn and should enjoy this test and could be the each-way angle if that's more your cup of tea. For me, though, it's all about ROSALLION.